Platform Capability
Honest Projections.
Backed By Comps.
Per-property revenue estimates anchored to your real market, scenario-tested for downside, and refreshed against actuals every quarter.
Book a consultationThe Problem
Every revenue projection on the market is optimistic. Most are pulled from API averages and presented as a single number. Owners make purchase decisions on those numbers, then call us 8 months later asking why the year is 22% below the pitch deck. The problem isn't the data — it's the framing. A range is honest. A point estimate isn't.
Hiring an in-house revenue analyst to curate comps, model scenarios, and reconcile actuals every quarter is the wrong cost shape for most portfolios. Full-time comp and benefits for a role that has surge weeks at acquisition and quiet weeks in between. The right shape is shared modeling work on a tool we already maintain, with quarterly review cadence built into the engagement — and a partner who has done the reconciliation across enough properties to know which assumptions actually move year-end actuals.
The CoHost Pro Approach
We model revenue as a range, not a number. Comp set selected by hand, not auto-pulled — same neighborhood, same bedroom count, same regulatory regime, same booking-window dynamics, weighted by how closely each comp actually mirrors the subject property. Three scenarios run on top of that comp set: conservative anchored to the bottom quartile of the comps' twelve-month trailing performance, base anchored to the median, stretch anchored to the top quartile and adjusted upward only when the property has a distinguishing feature the comps don't share. Each scenario carries named assumptions — minimum stay, channel mix, cleaning fee, seasonality shape, owner reserve — that you can question line by line. When actuals come in, we reconcile against the estimate and tell you which assumption moved. Decisions get sharper over time, not muddier. The same model surface that drives the projection drives the pricing strategy and the owner conversation, so the numbers stay coherent across every interaction. Before they ask.
What's Included
- +Per-property comp set selection (hand-curated, not auto-pulled)
- +Three-scenario projection (conservative / base / stretch)
- +Seasonality curve modeling
- +ADR + occupancy decomposition
- +Cost stack: cleaning, fees, taxes, owner reserves, management
- +Net-to-owner waterfall
- +Quarterly actuals-vs-estimate reconciliation
- +Sensitivity analysis on key assumptions (cleaning fee, min stay, channel mix)
How It Connects
Revenue estimates are the strategic anchor for every other capability. The pricing strategy that turns the projection into actual reservations is the operational instrument of Dynamic Pricing — the projection sets the rate envelope, and the daily pricing decisions live inside that envelope. The actuals reconciled against projections each quarter come from the ledger maintained in Trust Accounting; same numbers, same reconciliation discipline, applied to forecast accuracy rather than statement accuracy. Owners see projections alongside actuals through Owner Portal — the projection is open to inspection, not hidden behind a strategy deck.
The pricing inputs that drive projections — base rates, minimum stays, channel calibration — are the same inputs we tune through PriceLabs Optimization. The whole engagement sits inside CoHost Pro Services. One team, one set of standards, one statement at the end of the month.
- +Dynamic Pricing — pricing strategy is the operational instrument behind the projection
- +Trust Accounting — actuals reconciled to projections come from here
- +Owner Portal — projections visible to owners alongside actuals
- +PriceLabs Optimization — pricing inputs that drive projections
- +All CoHost Pro services — how revenue estimates sit inside the full engagement
Compliance & Standards
Projections are operational best-effort modeling, not financial advice. We use market data plus reservation history plus comp-set benchmarking; we are explicit about assumption uncertainty and we present ranges rather than point estimates because point estimates misrepresent what is actually knowable about a property's first year of revenue. Where we are wrong, we say so in the next quarterly reconciliation.
Final purchase or refinance decisions should be reviewed with your real estate attorney, lender, and CPA. We are inputs, not authorities. The projection is a useful number for negotiation, underwriting, and owner expectation-setting; it is not a guarantee, and it does not substitute for the diligence your licensed professionals are paid to perform.
Frequently Asked Questions
How is this different from AirDNA's projections?
AirDNA gives market averages. We give a property-specific range with hand-curated comps and named assumptions. The work is in the comp-set selection and the reconciliation cadence, not the data source.
Is Proforma your tool?
Yes. proforma.cohost.pro is our live revenue-estimate engine, maintained by our team. It's the working surface; the human review is the deliverable.
How often do you re-run the projection?
Initial projection at acquisition/listing, then quarterly refreshes against actuals. Markets that move fast (event-driven cities like DC, Nashville, Austin) get monthly mini-reviews.
What's your accuracy track record?
Most properties land inside the base-to-stretch range in year one. Conservative is the lower bound — we hit conservative on roughly nine in ten properties. We publish reconciliation summaries on request.
Can you project for properties we haven't bought yet?
Yes. Pre-acquisition projections are part of why we built Proforma. We need address, photos, and intended pricing strategy. Output ships in 3 business days.
Projections you can defend in the owner conversation.
Setup inside the first thirty days, initial projection in three business days. The cost lands well below a full-time in-house revenue analyst, because the modeling work is shared across the portfolios we already cover and Proforma is the same engine that runs underneath every projection we deliver.